randombio.com | Science Dies in Unblogginess | Believe All Science | I Am the Science Monday, March 03, 2025 | political commentary Ukraine and TibetUkraine should not rely on friendly words and empty gestures. They will be no more effective than they were for Tibet |
ast week President Trump and Vice-President Vance ganged up on Zelensky
in the ring. They brutally slammed him with a metal folding chair before
stomping him into the ring, all the while screaming things
like “Gulf of America!” and “Wurr the greatest!”
A pro wrestler with uncanny resemblance to J.D. Vance hitting a wrestler resembling Zelensky with a metal folding chair
That's the impression you'd get listening to the European news media. Perhaps their TVs were on the wrong channel. Or maybe it's the Tibet syndrome all over again.
Tibet was involuntarily annexed by China in 1951 after centuries of on and off domination by China. China's claim of sovereignty was even weaker than Putin's: Tibet was culturally and linguistically closer to Mongolia. But their government foolishly refused to modernize their military until it was too late, and they were no match for the Communist Chinese.
Yet the West universally praised the Dalai Lama, despite his order's gruesome history of corruption, solely because Tibet was a victim. As often happens, black-and-white thinking ignores the sad reality that being a victim doesn't make one morally superior. But it can make them think they are. Supporting a victim with extravagant praise and eloquent words can contribute to their demise. They can become intransigent, expecting international aid that never arrives.
The establishment in Europe still believes there is such a thing as soft power and they strongly resist change. By some definitions, that makes them very conservative—even reactionary—while the Trump administration is open to change.
President Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine. To do that, he must negotiate with Putin. For Trump, this means means everything is on the table until a mutually satisfactory solution is worked out. Maybe we should do a merger. Or not. That's how it's done in industry, and I assume it's how it's done in real estate.
By contrast, Zelensky believes the only way to get Russia to talk is to bomb them into submission. Zelensky reiterated this view in a new social media post: before he'll agree to a peace deal, he said, he needs three things: “strengthening our air defense, supporting our army, and ensuring effective security guarantees.”
Sometimes victims are so consumed with moral outrage and a craving for justice that compromise is unthinkable. Zelensky wants “security guarantees,” which would mean the USA goes in with troops and fights for his country if Russia breaks the cease-fire. This is wishful thinking. It is not going to happen.
Trump knows that Putin started it. But we are not children. Ukraine cannot hold its own without American support. Without it, as they said in the press conference, Ukraine would lose in a few weeks. It's not America's fight, and America, Trump believes, is neither willing nor able to pour hundreds of billions of dollars into what is plainly another lost cause.
I'm no military expert, but it seems clear even to me that the Ukraine military, for all its courage and determination, is unable to put together an effective joint offensive. Unfortunately, the country is on the verge of being split in half because Zelensky's head has been turned by empty praise. At best he is being unrealistic. At worst, he is deliberately courting catastrophe and angling to put the blame on America.
Clearly, Trump should have ended the press conference the moment people started pointing fingers at each other. Obviously he should be more diplomatic and circumspect when the press are watching. But Trump does what leaders are supposed to do, which is to change direction when things aren't working.
Trump might have wanted to let Zelensky put his foot in his mouth, as Zelensky seemed intent on doing. The goal might have been to shake him out of his refusal to negotiate. But Zelensky might now, like a foolish industry executive, run his country smack into the ground so he can blame Trump as a way of exonerating himself for his own failures.
Leadership means changing things, and change is what the Europeans seem to fear most. Tim Black at Spiked, a highly regarded (and rare) libertarian website in the UK, misinterpreted it almost as badly as the UK tabloid press did:
[Zelensky] was told, in no uncertain terms, that Ukraine ought to be grateful for whatever deal the US and Russia cook up between themselves. And if Zelensky doesn't like it, then the US will cast him and the people he leads to the Russian wind.
This is a mischaracterization of what was said. Zelensky had apparently been briefed by anti-Trump politicians not to give in and so he tried to negotiate in front of the press. He even brought photos of victims. It was more than grandstanding. It was a kick in the teeth to Trump's doctrine of hardball dealpolitik. Making deals is what Trump does, and he clearly stated his point of view:
You want me to say, uh, really terrible things about Putin, and then say hi, Vladimir, how are we doing on the deal? That doesn't work that way.
The commenters, usually supportive, uncharacteristically blasted Black's article:
Zelensky made the fatal mistake of failing to realise that, in such a scenario, when you look around the room and can't work out who the fall-guy is, then it's you. Z.'s arrogance led him to try it on- did he honestly think that things would suddenly fall into place, like they do in an episode of The West Wing? . . . .
No. It was Z. who screwed the pooch, because if he'd agreed to the deal and smiled and kept his gob shut then the US would have had a bargaining chip in the form of a vested interest in mineral rights and possibly a germ of an “Article Five” argument. Z. would have got his munitions and aid. Instead he tried to have his cake and eat it.
Even the BBC, while praising Zelensky's “moral clarity,” admitted that “even if it's painful, without a willingness to compromise, it's hard to see an end to this war.”
It's clear that many Brits and Europeans prefer soft power, which many Americans consider to consist mainly of nagging the enemy until he gives in just to shut you up, to Trump's dealpolitik. As Trump stated, his role is not to be aligned with either side. His role is to stop the war. The trade deal, which Zelensky has repeatedly rejected, would have done that without putting the West in a quagmire.
Ukraine's only hope now, if Zelensky is afraid to lose face, would be to replace him before it's too late. Maybe that was the goal all along.
mar 03 2025, 7:53 am. updated mar 04 2025 to include the exact “Vladimir” quote
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It looks like classic Donald Trump negotiating strategy:
hardball Realpolitik