t doesn't take a PhD in strategy to see how dangerous the world
situation is at the moment. Hamas evidently calculated its attack
to produce white-hot rage in Israel that would induce them to make
mistakes. So far, it has failed.
When I said last month that it felt like the calm before the storm, I thought maybe another virus. I never expected we'd be on the edge of World War III. My new theory is that calm before the storm is the universe's way of getting us to store up energy we'll need to survive the disaster ahead. The deeper the calm, the worse the universe has in store for us. We are all Job now.
While real estate values in Gaza are now set to decline precipitously, it poses a dilemma for Israel's leaders. If they depopulate it entirely, it could inflame worldwide antisemitism, which the terrorist attack proved was more widespread than anyone imagined. If they don't, the terrorists will go unavenged. When Iran gets nuclear weapons, they could become untouchable.
The attack would only make strategic sense if the terrorists have anti-tank missiles and IEDs. If Israel incurs serious losses on an invasion, it would allow the terrorists to declare victory and thus gain more support from Arabs, Iran, and their Western allies.
What was their goal?
Since terrorists never tell the truth, we have only speculation about their goal. One guess is that their goal was to prevent SA from signing the Abraham accords. Another common one is that there was no goal: haters gonna hate and terrorists gonna terrorize.
It is apparent that Israeli and American intelligence services recognized it as a carefully designed trap to divert attention from the north. Almost before the bodies were cold, the US rushed two aircraft carriers to the eastern Mediterranean and Israel put its invasion on hold. They were undoubtedly acting on intelligence that the goal was to induce Iran to enter the war, which would force direct US involvement.
Israel has said they would turn Lebanon to rubble and may well bomb Iran if Hezbollah attacks. If Hamas had waited until Iran had the bomb and the means to deliver it, the calculation would have been totally different. Thus, Biden's policy of supporting Iran must stop before it destabilizes the entire region.
Another view in the USA is that Russia might side with the Palestinians to get revenge for the US support for Ukraine; however, this seems unlikely in view of their own experience with terrorism. China is also unlikely to become actively involved, as their government cares next to nothing about what happens to the world outside China.
What is the likely outcome?
1. As expected, Israel will create a bigger no man's land between itself and Gaza. An extensive (and hopefully monitored) sensor network will ensure that nothing can cross, fly, or tunnel across the border. Bad luck for any temporary workers from Gaza.
2. European citizens may finally be starting to awaken to the vast reservoir of antisemitism created by their reckless immigrant policy. So far, their leaders are sticking to platitudes about “humanitarian” problems, but their citizens may force them to realize the danger.
3. The casual disregard for the truth in the US news media and the huge reservoir of antisemitism at our universities have been exposed. The hospital incident, which the American press falsely reported as a “bombing,” proved to be the work of Islamic Jihad, a competing terrorist faction. A failed missile launch landed in a parking lot, causing a fuel fire that damaged hospital windows and destroyed several cars. Agence France-Presse now estimates fewer than fifty deaths, not the 500 as claimed, though we may never know the real number. Despite this, the NYT published a photo of a different, demolished building, falsely implying that a massive war crime had been committed.
4. Universities may be forced to rein in their radical bureaucrats and faculty, as they are now widely viewed by off campus observers as motivated by antisemitism.
5. It will also strengthen the US security apparatus as it finds a new reason (or excuse, depending on your point of view) to crack down on disinformation.
Most importantly, it hammered in the realization that extensive intelligence from video feeds, “wiretaps,” and satellites is essential. Without them, the terrorists' claims would have gone unchallenged and likely have succeeded in bringing Iran into the war. Israel will need to install thermal infrared cameras and vibration sensors throughout Gaza and at its border if it doesn't have them already.
We learned from the damning revelations in that intercepted phone call between two terrorists that sometimes it's necessary to actually reveal your intelligence, even at the risk of exposing your capabilities. In the past, our NSA veered too far in the opposite direction.
Use of a nuclear weapon by Iran would not necessarily earn a commensurate response, but rather the surgical elimination of its government by precision conventional weapons. Detailed intelligence is essential for this to work. Indeed, despite the serious privacy implications in so-called free societies in the West, it is now painfully apparent that good intelligence is the only way to avoid nuclear armageddon.
oct 22 2023, 6:49 am
