Commentary

ike oil and water, two incompatible cultures exist today in Europe. But culture has a strange chemistry: unlike what we see in the lab, where the best you can hope for is an emulsion, cultures can change from oil to water and back through the magic of demographics.

That black magic is slowly working its wonders in America: liberals, bless their tree-hugging hearts, are slowly dying out because of their anti-reproductive ideology. The open question is whether they'll be replaced by rednecks and conservatives or by Mexicans. The libs, of course, have stated their preference. Time will tell.

Whatever the equivalent of liberals is called in Europe, they're suffering the same fate, but their replacements are more alien and a lot more violent. The Europeans think they can assimilate them, supremely confident that people of non-European descent will take it upon themselves to preserve the past glories and accomplishments that the Europeans made.

Thus the big issue of the 21st century is not ideology or religion. It is ethnicity and the future of nation-states based on ethnic populations. The next fifty years may decide whether we live in individual countries or big unions like a pan-Islamic caliphate, the former Soviet Union, or the probably-soon-to-be-former European Union. It also explains why liberals seem so enamored with radical Muslims. Their goals have significant overlap: both want to replace the nation-state with something bigger, based on something besides ethnicity and language. This makes them natural allies.

The question the Europeans should be asking is: are these really refugees? If so, why are so many going to Europe instead of Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, or even Iran, all of which are closer than Germany, France, and Sweden? Almost everyone acknowledges that they have no intention of ever returning home. Probably each refugee has a different motivation. Some are undoubtedly economic migrants. Others seem to be authentic invaders.

We know there are many in this last group because they're honest about their intentions. Their leaders have been quite open that their ultimate goal is to conquer Europe. They can't do it militarily, of course. But there are other ways.

In other words, it seems more likely that rather than being assimilated, they are intent on assimilating the Europeans. It's an ambitious plan that will take decades. But as Europe inches closer to its cultural tipping point, it's more than ironic that Al ‘tipping point’ Gore was in France when it started.

It is a repeated pattern. Much of Europe's history consists of barbarian tribes migrating, usually from east to west, and pushing the previous tribe of barbarians into the Atlantic. For example, the Celts, who were once spread throughout Germany, Austria, France, and even parts of Turkey, were displaced by several waves of settlers, and now hang by their fingernails to the rocks in the far northwest. Present-day Germans call these waves the Völkerwanderung.

An objective assessment must conclude that the Europeans know this and don't care. Eventually they will face some very unpleasant choices indeed, none of which result in the continuation of their multiculturalist ideal.

That idea is a denial of reality—a lie that leads to paralysis and surrender. The idea is their real enemy. Terrorism, insofar as it is a threat to Europe, is merely the physical manifestation of it. Bad ideas lead to other bad ideas, including the idea that survival of one's group is not important.

Russia has recognized this. They have started to overcome their sense of defeat, and accordingly their fertility rate has shot up from 1.25 in 2001 to 1.61 in 2012. If history teaches us anything, it's that anything Russia can do, Europe can do better.

Update (Nov. 25, 2015): I just discovered that Niall Ferguson mentioned the Völkerwanderung three days earlier than this article.